A Busy Week for Housing & Inflation Data

Get ready for a avalanche of data after the short holiday week

Nov 27, 2023

Good Monday morning to everyone except Senator Elizabeth Warren and her concern about a sandwich monopoly…

🎄 Only 28 shopping days till Christmas and just 35 days left in 2023…

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A Busy Week Ahead For Housing & Inflation Data

Monday

10:00 AM New Home Sales are expected to have fallen 5.0% to an annual rate of 721k in October.

Tuesday

9:00 AM The Case-Shiller Index is expected to show home prices in September

10:00 AM Consumer confidence is expected to fall to 101 which would be the lowest level since July 2022

Wednesday

4:00 AM Consumer credit in the United Kingdom is expected to have increased to £1.5B with mortgage approvals rising to 44.3k in October

7:00 AM Mortgage demand and rates

8:30 AM 3rd Quarter GDP 2nd estimate is expected to rise slightly to 5.0%

Thursday

5:00 AM Inflation rate in the Euro Area is expected to have slowed to 2.8% in October

8:30 AM Personal Consumption Expenditure Index is expected to show prices rising just 0.1% in October and year-over-year price growth slowing to 3.1%

8:30 AM Personal income and spending are both expected to have risen 0.2% in October

8:30 AM Jobless claims are expected to rise to 218k

10:00 AM Pending home sales are expected to have fallen 1.5% in October

12:00 PM Mortgage rates

Friday

10:00 AM ISM Manufacturing is expected to have risen to 47.6 in November

10:00 AM Construction spending is expected to have risen 0.4% in October

Demand for Mortgages Hit a Two-Month High

Falling mortgage rates helped push total mortgage demand to the highest level in six weeks, according to the weekly data from the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The Mortgage Market Index rose to 175.6 for the week, up 3% from last week and the highest level in six weeks.

Purchase Boom. The Purchase Index jumped to 138.4 for the week ending November 17th, up 4.0% from last week and the highest level in the last 8 weeks.

Refis were at a six-week high after rising 1.6% an index of 359.9 for the week ending November 17th.

Falling Rates. Rates fell to their lowest level since September thanks to a beneficial inflation report last week. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell to 7.41%, down 20 basis points from last week and the lowest level since September 24th.

The 30-year fixed is now down almost 50 basis from the 7.91% peak on October 22nd.

Breaking It Down. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 32.4% of total applications while the adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity decreased to 8.3% of total applications.

Analysis. Joel Kan, MBA’s Deputy Chief Economist, noted that while mortgage demand is still extremely low we are seeing some positive movement for first-time buyers. “Mortgage applications increased to their highest level in six weeks, but remain at very low levels. Purchase applications were up almost four percent over the week, on a seasonally adjusted basis, as both conventional and government purchase loans saw increases. The average loan size on a purchase application was $403,600, the lowest since January 2023. This is consistent with other sources of home sales data showing a gradually increasing first-time homebuyer share.”

Big Picture. With mortgage demand slowly rising the only real question is have we bottomed or do we have more room to fall?

Jobless Claims Fell to a Five-Week Low

Jobless claims fell to a 5-week low for the week ending November 18th, according to the weekly survey from the Department of Labor

The advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims fell to 209,000, down 24,000 from the previous week’s revised level and the lowest level in 5 weeks.

Economists projected a slightly smaller dip to 225k.

Continuing Claims. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending November 11th fell to 1,840,000, down 22,000 from the previous week’s revised level and the first drop in nine weeks.

Big Picture. Despite a slight increase recently, jobless claims remain close to lows for the year. However, continuing claims remain close to the two-year high.